"Analysts tell us that Unix is setting, Linux is rising, and Windows
will always be the reason microcomputers exist. The market share Unix
loses will get snapped up by Linux such that by the end of the decade, a
third or more of all servers will be running Linux. My job would be so
much easier if I could create five-year projections with a
search-and-replace that changes all instances of “U” to “Li.”
This business about Linux effortlessly coasting to a silver medal is
crap. It’s based on the presumption that Linux is running for that
position unopposed; if Linux avoids getting creamed by Windows, victory
is assured. Is it possible that by 2009 IT may find itself with
something it likes better? Do analysts really believe that IT is that
predictable when it comes to mission-critical technology? If there’s any
area where it’s worth doing homework, it’s OSes. IT knows that."
"System V and BSD Unix started life decades ago with charters that made
AT&T and the University of California at Berkeley answerable to some
tough customers. Linux eclipsed closed Unix by virtue of its openness.
But now Linux’s appeal is diluted by the opening up and broad
availability of enterprise Unix from Sun and Apple. So the formula has
changed: Closed Unix will lose market share, but Linux will not take
over those numbers and dollars by default. It’ll have to fight for them,
and Sun and Apple are well-positioned to make IT consider open Unix
alongside Linux as it phases out its proprietary solutions."
<http://www.infoworld.com/article/05/06/22/26OPcurve_1.html>
©2005 Bill Anderson |
