http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
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Ohio Republicans now saying Bush is ahead by more votes than there are
provisional ballots, including overseas absentee ballots. The absentee
ballots yet to be included include those from military personnel overseas.
It seems safe to assume President Bush may have won a vote or two among
these votes.
UPDATE: As I was heading back home last night, I did a back of the envelope
calculation of how the provisional ballots would have to break for Kerry in
order for him to win Ohio.
The blogger Pillage Idiot did the same math:
Let's do the math:
Bush has won Ohio by about 136,000 votes with 100% of precincts
reporting. Kerry wants to wait until the provisional ballots and absentees
are counted. Here is what Kerry will have to win out of these remaining
ballots to make up the 136,000 vote deficit.
The way to figure it out is:
(A) Take the number of valid provisional ballots (i.e., not the total
number but the total number reduced by the number of those determined to be
invalid) and add it to the number of valid absentee ballots.
(B) Subtract 136,000 from (A).
(C) Divide (B) by 2.
(D) Subtract (C) from (A). This is the number of votes Kerry needs to
win.
(E) Divide (D) by (A) and multiply by 100. This is the percentage of
votes Kerry needs to win.
So if these are the numbers of valid provisional and absentee ballots,
the numbers in parentheses following them are the percentages of the vote
Kerry needs to win Ohio:
150,000 (95.3%)
175,000 (88.9%)
200,000 (83.0%)
225,000 (79.8%)
250,000 (77.2%)
That's about what I had.
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- Bob
©2004 Bob Calco |
